Ten years before closure, enrollment decline at private, not-for-profit colleges and universities is visible in existing information. Using IPEDS data on 991 private non-profit institutions, 59 of which closed between 2019 and 2024, we conducted descriptive analysis and logistic regression. Prior enrollment decline, small size in the base fiscal year of 2019-20, and the base year plant-debt-to-assets ratio independently predict closure. Small institutions faced 4.5 times higher odds of closing than other institutions. The strength of these early indicators of challenge for many institutions suggests that options, like slashing expenses, increasing tuition discounts, and increasing tuition price, may be insufficient to avoid eventual closure. Lacking stronger governmental support, this culling of small institutions serving financially less able students will continue.